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With just five matchweeks remaining, the title race in La Liga is virtually over from a mathematical standpoint.
Barcelona hold an 11-point advantage over second-place Real Madrid, with Álvaro Arbeloa's side dropping points in three of their last four matches, effectively surrendering any realistic hope of claiming top spot.
It is now a matter of when, not if, Barça will officially clinch their second consecutive title, as Madrid brace for another summer of reflection and—potentially—sweeping changes.
Before that, however, the two clubs meet in the season's final Clásico at the Bernabéu on May 10—a night that could prove deeply uncomfortable for Madrid in more ways than one.
Will Barcelona Win La Liga at the Bernabéu?
As it stands, the maximum points Real Madrid can accumulate this season is 89—only if they win all five of their remaining fixtures. Barcelona, currently sitting on 85 points, require just five more from their last five games to be crowned champions. Opta's supercomputer currently puts Barça's chances of retaining La Liga at 99.5%.
Should Madrid drop points away at Espanyol this weekend, while Barcelona defeat Osasuna, a gap of 13 or 14 points would be insurmountable, and Hansi Flick's side would be officially confirmed as champions.
Assuming both sides produce matching results this weekend, the May 10 Clásico would then become the title-clinching opportunity. A draw at the Bernabéu would be sufficient for the visitors to lift the trophy, provided the two teams meet with a gap greater than nine points.
Even in a scenario where Madrid beat Espanyol and Barcelona fall to Osasuna in gameweek 34, the Catalans could still secure the title with a win at the Bernabéu.
Only if Madrid win against Espanyol and then triumph in the Clásico would Barcelona be forced to wait until at least gameweek 36 for the title to be confirmed.
Madrid defeated Barcelona 2–1 in their most recent league encounter back in October 2025, with Kylian Mbappé and Jude Bellingham both finding the net.
Historic Achievement
To further rub salt into the wounds of Madridistas, a title-deciding Clásico would carry enormous historical weight.
Perhaps surprisingly, in nearly 100 years of La Liga history, neither Barcelona nor Real Madrid has ever clinched the championship in a Clásico fixture.
The prospect of making that piece of history will undoubtedly serve as extra motivation for both sides heading into an already high-stakes match.
For his part, Arbeloa has made clear that Madrid will continue to fight for as long as any mathematical chance remains.
He told reporters: "Until there are mathematically no opportunities, there is a league. Until then, we will continue fighting for it."
Guard of Honor Drama
In Spain, as in many other countries, when a team has been mathematically confirmed as La Liga champions during the season, they are traditionally given a pasillo (guard of honor) by their opponents before kick-off in subsequent fixtures.
Madrid have on occasion chosen to forgo the tradition, most notably snubbing Barcelona following this season's Supercopa final in Jeddah and during a contentious league match at Camp Nou near the end of the 2017–18 season.
Back in 2018, then-manager Zinedine Zidane took ownership of the decision, stating: "I don't understand the guard of honor thing, and we're not going to do it."
In 2008, however, Barcelona's players lined up to applaud the newly crowned Real Madrid champions at the Bernabéu.