Supercomputer Reveals How Derby Loss Could Shatter Real Madrid's Title Dreams

Now, we can confidently say that José Mourinho is well and truly back. Things had been a little too pleasant for the 'Special One' until the Madrid derby triggered the return of classic Mourinho.

His Real Madrid side suffered a 2–1 defeat to their city rivals at the Metropolitano in a fiercely contested match that was certainly not lacking in controversy.

And, naturally, Mourinho's men felt they were on the receiving end of a serious injustice. It was Dean Huijsen's dismissal, which led to an Atléti penalty, that dramatically changed the course of events, but Mourinho felt the hosts should have already been down to nine men by that stage.

He had footage of the two relevant red card-worthy incidents ready at the post-match press conference, stating: "We can skip the press conference as the story of the game is here—they are two clear red cards."

So, it has taken just a few weeks, and only the second defeat of his second spell, for Mourinho to revert to his 'us vs. the world' mentality. However unjust Madrid considered the loss to be, their display and result exposed all too familiar weaknesses and further underlined the scale of the challenge facing Mourinho.

They are not simply chasing Barcelona in an attempt to reclaim the La Liga crown, but a Barcelona side that appears intent on being remembered as one of the most thrilling teams we have ever witnessed.

The back-to-back champions already hold a comfortable lead at the top, and here's how Opta's supercomputer forecasts La Liga's title race to unfold following Madrid's loss to Atléti.

Opta Predicts La Liga Title Race After Madrid Derby

Barcelona are now five points clear at the top of the table after extending their flawless start to the season with a 3–1 victory over Sevilla on Saturday. The in-form Raphinha netted all three for the visitors, who are the runaway favorites to claim a third straight league title.

Opta places Barça's chances of defending their crown at an impressive 75.02%, projecting them to finish with at least 87 points—a notably bold forecast, given the supercomputer's usual caution.

Real Madrid's loss at the Metropolitano saw them fall behind their city rivals and head into the first international break of the season sitting fourth. Real Betis, who handed Mourinho his first defeat since returning, sit third despite being held to a draw at Deportivo de A Coruña on Sunday.

Madrid carried a 31% title-winning probability before the season began, but that figure has dwindled to just 16.47% following their derby defeat.

Atléti's title aspirations were certainly boosted by their victory, and they have now won three consecutive matches without a goal from Julián Alvarez, the standout signing of La Liga's summer. Opta gives Diego Simeone's Rojiblancos a 5.98% chance of lifting the title for the first time since 2021.

While Atléti have twice broken up Barça and Madrid's stranglehold on the title under Simeone, no alternative La Liga champion has emerged since Valencia were crowned in 2003–04.

Barcelona's dominance makes an upset unlikely this time around, even if Betis have made an encouraging start to the campaign. Manuel Pellegrini's side are back in the Champions League and poised to retain their place among Europe's elite next season. However, their prospects of winning La Liga are slim, precisely 2.09% according to Opta.

Villarreal are expected to bounce back from their sluggish start and finish fifth, but the Yellow Submarine will not be lifting their first Spanish title this season.

Barcelona Chasing Historic La Liga Season After Record-Breaking Start

Seven games, seven wins and 31 goals scored. Barcelona are currently on course to achieve a perfect La Liga season and register 168 goals in total if that form holds through to May.

Flick's men have enjoyed a record-breaking start to the campaign, their finest in a hundred years, and while they appear destined to cruise to the La Liga title, this squad will also have their sights set on records.

One hundred points remains the all-time record, set by Mourinho's Madrid (2011–12) and Tito Vilanova's Barça (2012–13) in consecutive seasons.

That Madrid side also plundered a remarkable 121 goals during their title-winning campaign, meaning Flick's team would need 91 goals in their remaining 31 matches at a rate of 2.93 per game to surpass that benchmark. Achievable.

While Barça were pipped to the La Liga title by Mourinho's counter-attacking machine during Pep Guardiola's final season at the helm, they still managed a staggering 190 goals across all competitions (114 in the league). This Barça side have already netted 36 goals in eight games, and will have the added benefit of seven more league-phase fixtures in the Champions League.

An anticipated deep run in Europe means that record will be under serious threat as well.