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Two contrasting yet equally crucial Champions League semifinal first legs unfolded this week as four of Europe's biggest clubs fought to secure an advantage heading into the 2026 final.
Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich, widely regarded as the two most potent attacking sides in Europe, clashed at the Parc des Princes on Tuesday evening, a day before Arsenal and Atlético Madrid, two of the continent's most defensively organized outfits, met at the Metropolitano.
Both fixtures largely followed anticipated patterns, though they were not without their share of surprises. PSG claimed a breathtaking 5–4 win over Bayern Munich in a match that will be remembered for years to come, with seven different players getting on the scoresheet in a pulsating end-to-end encounter.
Arsenal's clash with Atlético Madrid lacked the attacking spectacle of the Paris showdown, but still generated plenty of discussion, ending in a 1–1 stalemate courtesy of spot-kick conversions from Viktor Gyökeres and Julián Alvarez.
With the second legs on the horizon as May approaches, here's how the Opta supercomputer assesses each team's likelihood of claiming the 2025–26 Champions League title.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Winner
Opta has favored Arsenal to lift the Champions League for much of the season, and that stance remains unchanged following the semifinal first legs. The supercomputer gives the Gunners a 39.13% probability of finally getting their hands on the coveted trophy in Budapest.
Mikel Arteta's side are yet to taste defeat in Europe's top club competition this campaign, posting a flawless league-phase record before progressing unbeaten through the knockout rounds, eliminating Bayer Leverkusen and Sporting CP along the way. Despite Arsenal's somewhat pragmatic approach, Opta is not willing to write off a team that has remained undefeated throughout the 2025–26 Champions League.
PSG sit second in the standings with a 30.83% chance of successfully retaining their European title. Much like the previous campaign, the Parisians endured a patchy league phase, but hit their stride in the knockout rounds, netting 22 goals and knocking out Monaco, Chelsea, and Liverpool.
Should Luis Enrique's squad reach the final, they would be the clear favorites to claim the trophy, yet the supercomputer appears to favor Arsenal's defensive solidity over PSG's devastating attacking threat at this point, with neither side guaranteed a place in the showpiece.
Team | Chances of Winning |
|---|---|
Arsenal | 39.13% |
PSG | 30.83% |
Bayern Munich | 22.20% |
Atlético Madrid | 7.84% |
Bayern Munich trail PSG's odds by a relatively slim margin. Opta gives the Bundesliga heavyweights a 22.20% shot at claiming their first Champions League crown since 2020 — though they would first need to overturn the defending champions in the second leg to keep that dream alive.
Vincent Kompany's team finished as runners-up in the league phase, then comfortably dispatched Atalanta in the round of 16 before edging past Real Madrid in a thrilling quarterfinal. They would be thoroughly deserving finalists, but the supercomputer suggests they may fall just short for the second time in three seasons.
Atlético Madrid, by contrast, are given very little hope of winning the Champions League by Opta, with the model rating their chances of lifting the trophy in Budapest at a slim 7.84%.
Even should the Spanish side eliminate Arsenal in the last four, the supercomputer views them as underdogs against both PSG and Bayern Munich. Diego Simeone's squad will not lack confidence, however, given that few expected them to knock out Barcelona in the quarterfinals either.
Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Semifinal Winners
Second Leg | Team Most Likely to Advance |
|---|---|
Arsenal vs. Atlético Madrid (1–1) | Arsenal (76.14%) |
Bayern Munich vs. PSG (4–5) | PSG (60.95%) |
Opta predictably backs its two top picks — Arsenal and PSG — to reach the final, rating them as the most likely sides to progress from their respective ties. Arsenal are given a 76.14% chance of seeing off Atlético Madrid in the second leg to book their place in Budapest.
The supercomputer puts PSG's chances of overcoming Bayern at 60.95%, leaving the German side with just a 39.05% shot at pulling off what would be a remarkable turnaround at the Allianz Arena next week.