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Sunday's clash between Manchester City and Arsenal was anticipated as a potential championship decider. While the title race remains mathematically alive, a significant blow was landed at the Etihad Stadium.
It was Pep Guardiola's City who came out on top, grinding out a tense 2–1 victory to close to within three points of Arsenal in the table ahead of their midweek fixture against Burnley, before the Gunners play again. It may well come down to a straight contest over which side can rack up the most points between now and the final whistle of the season.
With a blockbuster weekend now concluded, the Opta supercomputer has released its latest forecast for the Premier League title race.
Supercomputer Predicts Premier League Title Race
Position | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Title Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Arsenal | 70 | 80.77 | 72.97% |
2. | Man City | 67 | 78.16 | 27.03% |
Despite their heavy defeat on Sunday, Arsenal remain at the top of the projected standings.
The supercomputer assigns Arsenal a 72.97% probability of holding onto first place through to the end of the campaign, forecasting that City will finish the season two points adrift of their bitter rivals and giving them only a 27.03% chance of overtaking Arsenal.
City return to action on Wednesday against relegation-threatened Burnley, where a win could propel them into top spot with just five matches to go.
Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Qualification Race
Position | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Qualification Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
3. | Aston Villa | 58 | 65.89 | 98.64% |
4. | Man Utd | 58 | 65.62 | 98.64% |
5. | Liverpool | 55 | 62.63 | 88.86% |
6. | Bournemouth | 48 | 55.32 | 2.55% |
7. | Chelsea | 48 | 55.18 | 4.75% |
8. | Brighton | 47 | 54.90 | 2.85% |
9. | Brentford | 48 | 54.34 | 2.47% |
10. | Everton | 47 | 53.81 | 0.83% |
11. | Sunderland | 46 | 52.25 | 0.22% |
12. | Fulham | 45 | 51.12 | 0.04% |
Manchester United's win over Chelsea on Saturday has all but secured a Champions League berth in everything but official confirmation. While the Red Devils could theoretically slip out of the qualification places, it remains highly unlikely, with a 98.64% chance of making it through.
Both Aston Villa and Liverpool strengthened their own top-five bids with late wins on Sunday. Virgil van Dijk's 100th-minute header against Everton hands the Reds a seven-point buffer, with Villa sitting a further three points ahead courtesy of their own injury-time win over Sunderland.
Chelsea, meanwhile, have suffered a dramatic dip in form at the most inopportune moment, dropping out of the Champions League places and at risk of missing out on European football entirely next season, given how tight the margins are in that part of the table.
Level on 48 points with the Blues are Brentford and Bournemouth, with the Cherries even tipped to overtake Liam Rosenior's side into sixth. That said, Chelsea's qualification odds (4.75%) remain higher than Bournemouth's (2.55%).
Brighton, Everton, Sunderland and Fulham all find themselves on the outside looking in, knowing that a single positive result could launch them up the table.
Supercomputer Predicts Premier League Relegation Battle
Position | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Relegation Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
16. | Nott'm Forest | 36 | 41.95 | 4.43% |
17. | West Ham | 32 | 38.40 | 38.97% |
18. | Tottenham | 31 | 36.92 | 56.16% |
19. | Burnley | 20 | 24.23 | 100.00% |
20. | Wolves | 17 | 22.95 | 100.00% |
Leeds United supporters will be relieved to see their club absent from this section. A win over bottom-placed Wolverhampton Wanderers leaves Daniel Farke's men eight points above the relegation zone with five fixtures remaining.
Wolves' relegation has effectively been confirmed for some time and could be made official on Monday should West Ham United pick up any points from their trip to Crystal Palace. Burnley face the same fate in the coming weeks, with both clubs given a 100% probability of going down.
The question of which club will join Burnley and Wolves in the Championship next season remains unresolved. Tottenham Hotspur currently sit in that dreaded position after conceding a late leveller to Brighton on Saturday, leaving them one point behind West Ham having played an additional game.
West Ham's survival prospects will be shaped by Monday's result, but if their relegation odds remain anywhere near the 38.97% they currently stand at, Nuno Espírito Santo will have reason to feel cautiously optimistic.