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The U.S. men's national team may have closed out its group stage with a heartbreaking defeat, dropping a 3–2 decision in stoppage time to already-eliminated Türkiye last Thursday; yet despite the disappointing result, head coach Mauricio Pochettino felt the day unfolded precisely as intended. The squad emerged without injuries or yellow card accumulations, while still claiming the top spot in Group D.
The Americans secured the group title with back-to-back wins over Paraguay and Australia, counting on Paraguay to knock off Turkey and confirm their elimination. As a result, the USMNT's fixture against Türkiye was rendered inconsequential, and the team is equally determined to treat the resulting defeat as inconsequential.
"Winning this game, or not winning this game, is not going to change," Pochettino said post-match.
He dismissed the notion of lost momentum heading into Wednesday's round of 32 clash against Bosnia & Herzegovina as "a little bit petty" and an example of thinking "too small."
If he's correct, the USMNT will step out and dismantle the Balkan side with ease. Despite the tenacity and physicality Bosnia brings, it should pose little threat to the tactical intelligence and creative brilliance the USMNT showcased against both Paraguay and Australia.
But is Pochettino right? Or will the shock defeat shake the squad's confidence? The Opta supercomputer has been running the numbers, generating predictions for the USMNT's prospects in the round of 32 and beyond at the 2026 World Cup.
Supercomputer Predicts USMNT's World Cup Finish
The supercomputer still strongly favors the USMNT in the showdown against Bosnia & Herzegovina, who finished third in Group B behind Switzerland and Canada. Opta projects the team has a 76.96% chance of defeating Bosnia and advancing to the last 16, matching the result from each of its previous three World Cup appearances.
The U.S. is eager to reach at least the quarterfinals for only the second time in the modern World Cup era and the first time since its remarkable 2002 campaign. To accomplish that, the Americans must overcome the winner of Belgium vs. Senegal in the round of 16. The supercomputer assigns the Americans a 41.33% probability of doing so — a figure that would have seemed far-fetched before the tournament began.
Round | USMNT's Odds of Advancing |
|---|---|
Round of 32 | 100% |
Round of 16 | 76.96% |
Quaterfinals | 41.33% |
Semifinals | 14.90% |
Final | 5.43% |
Winners | 2.15% |
The USMNT's odds drop sharply after the quarterfinals, with only a 14.90% chance of punching a ticket to the semifinals.
As for a spot in the final? Opta gives Pochettino's side just a 5.43% chance of earning a berth at MetLife Stadium on July 19. The USMNT has never appeared in a World Cup final, and doing so this summer on home turf would be a landmark achievement...one the supercomputer believes will most likely end in disappointment.
The U.S. holds only a 2.15% chance of hoisting soccer's most coveted trophy. France, Spain, and Argentina are the only teams given double-digit odds of being crowned world champions this summer. The remaining 29 nations still in contention, the U.S. included, are left with slim percentages.
SI answers is our AI answer engine trained on human-created content.
The USMNT has already surpassed expectations considerably, and stunning upsets have been a theme of this summer's tournament. Who's to say Pochettino's men can't defy all the odds and claim the 2026 World Cup?