The Five Teams Most Likely to Claim the 2026 MLS Cup Glory—Ranked

The 2026 MLS regular season is heading into its final stretch, with most clubs having four matches remaining to secure their place above the playoff cutoff.

This postseason will retain the format in place since 2023: nine clubs per conference, with the eighth- and ninth-place sides meeting in a single-game Wild Card clash to decide who moves on to face the top seed in a best-of-three first-round series. 

While some clubs hit the ground running back in February, others have found their footing and grown stronger throughout the long campaign. Now with only a handful of weeks remaining, it's becoming evident which sides are the genuine title threats most likely to lift the MLS Cup on Dec. 15. 

Here, Sports Illustrated ranks the five leading contenders to claim the championship.

5. Philadelphia Union

The Philadelphia Union were languishing near the foot of the MLS standings heading into the World Cup break. 

Interim boss Ryan Richter has engineered a remarkable turnaround, lifting the side to sixth in the Eastern Conference with four games remaining and an impressive 15-match unbeaten streak. 

The foundation of this revival has been a willingness to trust youth. Cavan Sullivan has shouldered greater responsibility and has racked up seven goals and 14 assists at just 17 years old, surpassing Alphonso Davies's 2018 record for the most goal contributions by a teenager in a single season with 21. Alongside him, 19-year-old center back Neil Pierre has emerged as a vital defensive presence, while 20-year-old right back Frankie Westfield has shown tremendous development. 

Beyond the youthful core, midfielder Danley Jean Jacques and goalkeeper Andre Blake continue to be central figures in Richter's system. Meanwhile, the attacking duo of Bruno Damiani and Milan Iloski has combined for 31 goals.

The Union have discovered a formula that clicks and appears nearly impossible to stop, timing their peak perfectly for the postseason and potentially positioning themselves for a coveted top-four spot in the Eastern Conference. However, with both Miami and Nashville standing in their path, a deep run to the MLS Cup may prove a bridge too far for these young stars.

4. St. Louis CITY SC

St. Louis CITY SC overhauled their squad at the midpoint of the season, and the gamble has paid off. Manager Yoann Damet's side are legitimate MLS Cup contenders as the campaign enters its final stages, particularly after claiming the U.S. Open Cup final midweek — the club's first-ever piece of silverware.

While their recent 19-game unbeaten run fell short of the all-time MLS regular-season record, it demonstrated how swiftly the team has adapted around key additions Carlo Holse and Rafael Navarro, with Roman Bürki providing reliability in goal. Navarro has been the standout catalyst, contributing eight goals and three assists across eight appearances since arriving from the Colorado Rapids for a $12 million fee. 


With their consistent results and the dominance displayed during that run, St. Louis have transformed from a preseason dark horse into a genuine title threat, though they'll need to navigate a tough Western Conference and avoid any stumbles that could expose their squad depth.

3. Inter Miami

Inter Miami are the reigning champions, yet have rarely resembled MLS Cup-caliber contenders for much of the season, including a rough patch of just one win in 10 outings. Now under their third manager, Kily González, they appear to have found their rhythm and could be primed to peak at exactly the right moment in the playoffs. 

Lionel Messi remains the central pillar of Inter Miami's entire operation. He is the frontrunner to claim a third consecutive MLS MVP award and appears on course to defend his Golden Boot title as well. His impact has been unrivaled, particularly as he grows increasingly comfortable under González.

While Messi will ultimately dictate the team's destiny, 2025 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year Dayne St. Clair has rediscovered his form between the posts in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Germán Berterame has stepped up his game — all while Luis Suárez continues to defy logic as a reliable attacking threat with 15 goals in 26 appearances at nearly 40 years of age. 

Miami's path back to the MLS Cup won't be straightforward, likely requiring them to overcome Nashville — the side that eliminated them from the Concacaf Champions Cup — but they would enter as favorites should they reach that stage.

2. Vancouver Whitecaps

The pivotal moment of the Vancouver Whitecaps' season was the sale of USMNT midfielder Seabtian Berhalter to Middlesbrough for $2 million following his standout showing at the World Cup. Since that departure, the 2025 MLS Cup finalists have struggled to replicate the dominance and consistency they displayed in the first half of the campaign. That said, Whitecaps supporters can take comfort — this remains a strong side and a clear frontrunner to win the Western Conference. 

Despite managing just two victories in their last six matches, the club is still on track to surpass their 2025 points tally, which represented their finest regular-season showing. Defensively, they have conceded only 31 goals in 30 games, second-best in the entire league behind Nashville SC. Brian White has continued to spearhead the attack with 17 goals in 28 appearances, even amid a recent dip in form. 

The most notable shift between the Berhalter-driven 2025 side and the current 2026 edition has been the reemergence of Scottish Designated Player Ryan Gauld. After missing much of the 2025 season through injury, Gauld has contributed four goals and two assists this year and has grown increasingly influential in the second half of the campaign, especially during periods when Thomas Müller has been less than fully fit.

Even so, Müller has chipped in with nine goals and eight assists, and manager Jesper Sørensen is carefully managing his German star's fitness ahead of the playoffs. The Whitecaps have every reason to believe they can make another deep run toward the MLS Cup.

1. Nashville SC

Nashville SC have stood atop MLS all season long and remain on course to break the all-time regular-season points record, set by Inter Miami's 74-point haul just two seasons ago. While the Herons were eliminated in the first round of the MLS Cup playoffs that year, Nashville are far better positioned to sustain a lengthy postseason run all the way to the title. 

The team's identity is built around its attack, with Hany Mukhtar's goal-creation prowess shining even brighter than during his 2022 MLS MVP campaign. Sam Surridge, meanwhile, has kept up his exceptional scoring form with 17 goals in 24 games, benefiting from greater support than he had during last season's 25-goal effort. Factor in Cristian Espinoza's creativity and Elias Saad's effectiveness in transition, and it's no mystery why they've been among the league's most potent attacking forces all year. 

Unlike some previous Supporters' Shield winners, however, Nashville have not compromised their defensive structure. Through 30 games, they have allowed just 23 goals, with Brian Schwake delivering standout goalkeeping performances when opponents manage to breach the backline partnership of Reid Baker-Whiting and Andy Nájar. 

With home-field advantage anticipated throughout the postseason, it feels like MLS Cup or nothing for Nashville, as they chase becoming the first club since LAFC in 2022 to claim both the Shield and the MLS Cup in the same season.