UEFA Europa League Matchday 5: Bold Predictions That Could Change Everything

The 2025–26 Europa League final will be decided by Thursday night's conclusion.

One Premier League club will earn a place in the showpiece event in Istanbul, with Aston Villa squaring off against fellow Midlands rivals Nottingham Forest in their semifinal second leg, while Freiburg must overturn a first-leg deficit to eliminate Braga and reach their first-ever European final.

Both ties hang in the balance following tense opening encounters, and all four remaining sides will believe they have what it takes to advance. Only two will manage it, though.

With that in mind, here is how Sports Illustrated expects the Europa League semifinal second legs to unfold.

Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest

Kick-off time: 8 p.m. BST / 3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT

"The VAR is so, so bad. It's a clear red card," raged Unai Emery following the first leg at the City Ground. The Villa manager was furious at the failure to dismiss Elliot Anderson for his reckless challenge on Ollie Watkins' ankle, a moment the Spaniard believed was pivotal in his side's narrow 1–0 defeat.

Anderson escaped punishment, but Villa were not as fortunate. Chris Wood's second-half spot-kick means they now face a deficit heading into the return fixture, needing to turn things around on home soil.

That remains achievable, though confidence has been dented by three consecutive losses. Emery rang the changes on Sunday as a reshuffled XI fell to a 2–1 defeat against a struggling Tottenham Hotspur side in a thoroughly poor performance, with boos echoing around Villa Park at full time.

Those jeers must transform into roars on Thursday if Villa are to topple one of England's most in-form sides. Rotation proved no problem for Vítor Pereira, whose rotated squad traveled to Chelsea and delivered an impressive 3–1 victory on Monday, stretching the club's unbeaten run to nearly two months and making it five straight wins across all competitions.

Forest know a draw is enough to advance and they are more than capable of keeping things tight under Pereira, despite their improved output going forward. They could grind their way to a first major continental final since lifting the European Cup back in 1980.

Prediction: Aston Villa 1–1 Nottingham Forest

Freiburg vs. Braga

Kick-off time: 8 p.m. BST / 3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT

Last week's clash in Braga was packed with drama. The Portuguese side edged out a 2–1 victory over Freiburg, though it took a 92nd-minute goal from Mario Dorgeles to seal the win—a huge relief for Rodrigo Zalazar after his stoppage-time penalty miss earlier in the match.

Freiburg talisman Vincenzo Grifo had leveled things up after Demir Tıknaz's early strike in a frantic opening half, and the Italian's creativity and eye for goal will be central to Thursday's home clash at the Europa-Park Stadion.

The Bundesliga's seventh-placed outfit will head into the match brimming with confidence, particularly given their perfect home record in the Europa League this season—scoring eight goals in knockout stage victories over Genk and Celta Vigo on their own ground.

Braga have suffered just one away defeat in European competition this season and posted a commanding 4–2 win at Real Betis in the quarterfinals, but Freiburg's impressive home performances make them narrow favorites.

The tie could go either way, but Freiburg's attacking firepower may well propel them into uncharted waters.

Prediction: Freiburg 3–1 Braga

Europa League Semifinal Second Leg Predictions