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The 2026 Ballon d'Or shortlist has been revealed, and among the 30 women's players nominated for the world's best player award, just one American made the cut: Rose Lavelle.
This marks the second Ballon d'Or nomination of the 31-year-old midfielder's career. She placed eighth in the 2019 voting. So what are the odds that the USWNT and Gotham FC standout could claim soccer's most prestigious individual honor this year?
Let's explore whether Lavelle has a realistic shot at winning the Ballon d'Or in London on October 26th.
How Is Lavelle Judged?
ROSE LAVELLE BRINGS THE NWSL CHAMPIONSHIP MAGIC FOR GOTHAM FC 🪄
Watch Washington Spirit vs Gotham FC in the NWSL Championship NOW on @CBS & @paramountplus 📺 pic.twitter.com/1yfTO1P6kQ
The Ballon d'Or evaluation window, used to assess the world's top players, runs from Aug. 3, 2025 to July 26, 2026, in line with the European soccer calendar. The award, founded by France Football, judges players across three main categories: individual performance, team achievements, and fair play—listed in order of importance.
With Lavelle competing in the National Women's Soccer League (NWSL), she faces an inherent disadvantage compared to her international peers. Operating on a spring-to-fall schedule rather than the European calendar, she will have logged fewer matches than many of Europe's elite players, and the time zone differences and broadcast platform limitations make it even harder for voters to evaluate her performances.
That said, Lavelle's trophy haul speaks volumes. She claimed two domestic titles with Gotham: the 2025 NWSL Championship and the 2026 NWSL Challenge Cup. She also reached the semifinals of the continental Concacaf W Champions Cup and the inaugural FIFA Women's Champions Cup. Individually, across club and international duty, Lavelle made over 40 appearances and contributed 15 goals and five assists within this Ballon d'Or window.
Even with two trophies and two Final Four runs to her name, what may truly elevate Lavelle's Ballon d'Or profile is her breathtaking match-winner in the 2025 NWSL Championship final, which gave Gotham a 1-0 win over the Washington Spirit. In soccer, iconic moments often carry the most weight.
Who Votes for the Ballon d'Or?
The Ballon d'Or is decided by an international panel of journalists assembled by France Football. For the women's award, this panel consists of 50 journalists, one representing each of the top 50 nations in the FIFA World Rankings.
Each journalist submits a ballot listing 10 players from the shortlist. The order in which those players are ranked determines their point totals. A first-place vote earns 15 points, followed by 12 for second, 10 for third, eight for fourth, and seven for fifth. Positions six through ten are awarded five, four, three, two, and one point respectively.
Based on FIFA rankings, 27 of the 50 journalists are European-based. Only 11 are located in time zones across North, Central, or South America and the Caribbean where watching NWSL games at a reasonable hour is feasible. Once again, this creates a significant hurdle for Lavelle in terms of voter exposure.
What Can History Tell Us?
Looking at past Ballon d'Or recipients, the UEFA Women's Champions League appears to be the strongest indicator of success, alongside dominance in top European leagues such as the English Women's Super League and Spain's Liga F.
The next most influential platform is the international stage, with the FIFA Women's World Cup, UEFA Women's Euros, and CONMEBOL Copa América Femenina carrying the most weight. For certain voters, the Women's African Cup of Nations and Women's Asian Cup can also boost a player's profile. The Olympics tend to provide a lift as well, as demonstrated in 2024, when gold-winning Americans Lindsey Heaps, Trinity Rodman, Sophia Wilson, and Mal Swanson all broke into the top 10.
The last five Ballon d'Or titles have all been claimed by FC Barcelona players: Aitana Bonmatí in 2023, 2024, and 2025, and Alexia Putellas in 2021 and 2022. Over those five seasons, Barcelona won the Champions League three times and finished as runners-up in the remaining two.
Barcelona's stranglehold on European club soccer has coincided with Spain's rise on the international stage, including winning the 2023 Women's World Cup and reaching the final of the 2025 Women's Euros.
The only American to ever win the Ballon d'Or was Megan Rapinoe in 2019, following her pivotal role in the United States' World Cup triumph that year. She was also named player of the tournament and shared the Golden Boot with six goals. Lavelle scored in that World Cup final and went on to finish eighth in the Ballon d'Or standings.
So, Can Lavelle Win in 2026?
The honest answer is: probably not. It seems highly unlikely that Lavelle can accumulate enough votes based on her NWSL performances and appearances in less high-profile competitions. Without a major international tournament in the mix, it feels nearly impossible for an NWSL-based player to crack the top three at this point in time. That could change someday—but that day doesn't appear to be now.
The best Ballon d'Or finish for an NWSL-based player without a major international tournament in the voting window is 13th, achieved by Alex Morgan of the San Diego Wave in 2022. Last year, Temwa Chawinga placed 17th on the strength of her performances with the Kansas City Current.
If Lavelle can push into the top 10, it would be considered a significant milestone for both the NWSL and Gotham FC as the league works to raise its global standing and recognition.
More realistically, Lavelle is likely to finish somewhere between 10th and 20th, behind fellow nominees Chawinga and Orlando Pride's Barbra Banda, both of whom have been more consistently dominant in the NWSL and have generated greater international attention over the past year.
Barcelona players and other top performers from Champions League clubs are expected to dominate the top 10. WSL leading scorer Khadija Shaw of Manchester City and Jamaica is another standout who should rank highly after a remarkable title-winning campaign in which she netted 21 goals in 22 league appearances. Likewise, Japanese internationals, fresh off winning the 2026 Women's Asian Cup, should feature more prominently than in prior years.