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Liverpool's dismal season could take another painful turn this weekend as they enter their Premier League finale still needing to secure Champions League qualification.
While the Reds remain overwhelming favorites to feature in Europe's top club competition next season, their place has not yet been mathematically sealed. Bournemouth are still technically in contention for fifth, setting up a nervy Sunday afternoon at Anfield.
Liverpool host Brentford at Merseyside knowing that a win or a point would be sufficient to lock in their Champions League spot, but a loss would leave them dependent on Bournemouth's result, as the Cherries travel to Nottingham Forest on the final day.
A dreadful season will reach its end this weekend—or perhaps not quite yet.
How Liverpool Could Face Unthinkable Champions League Playoff
Liverpool are virtually guaranteed Champions League football next season, yet a home defeat to Brentford could crack open the door to some truly unimaginable scenarios.
Bournemouth would draw level on points should they defeat Forest while Liverpool fall, and a seven-goal swing in goal difference would see the Cherries leapfrog their Champions League rivals. For instance, if Liverpool were to lose 4–0 and Bournemouth claimed a 3–0 victory at the City Ground, the south coast club would climb into fifth place.
Equally alarming is the possibility of a playoff to determine fifth place, which remains on the table heading into the final day—however remote the chances may be.
Should Liverpool fall 1–0 and Bournemouth triumph 5–0, a single-leg match at a neutral ground would be arranged to settle who finishes fifth, as detailed by Opta's Michael Reid. Yes, that's a real possibility. That's because Liverpool and Bournemouth would be deadlocked across all the deciding criteria:
Once all those metrics have been exhausted, a playoff comes into play.
With Opta giving Liverpool a 99.65% probability of Champions League qualification, the chance of them being eliminated through a playoff is extraordinarily slim.
The Reds have never lost to or conceded a goal against Brentford at Anfield in the Premier League—though they did suffer a defeat away at the Bees earlier this campaign—and Bournemouth, despite a solid away record at Forest, have never managed to beat them by more than one goal at the City Ground.
Nevertheless, given Liverpool's recent form and Bournemouth's remarkable 17-match unbeaten run, the prospect of final-day drama cannot be entirely dismissed.