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Having picked up just a single point from their last nine available, Liverpool enter the final day of the season still without certainty over Champions League qualification.
The former Premier League champions have suffered through several wretched weeks that perfectly encapsulate a thoroughly disappointing campaign, and they have just one final chance to find a positive ending.
Currently sitting in fifth—a position that carries a Champions League spot this season—Liverpool can at least close out their campaign by securing a return to Europe's elite competition, with their fate firmly in their own hands going into the season's final day.
However, with Bournemouth breathing down their necks and still mathematically in contention, the battle is not yet decided.
How Liverpool Can Secure Champions League on Final Day
It's worth noting that while Liverpool could theoretically still miss out on the top five, data analysts Opta place their probability of Champions League qualification at 99.65% ahead of their season closer at home against Brentford this Sunday.
That figure is so elevated thanks to Erling Haaland's 95th-minute equalizer in Tuesday's 1–1 stalemate between Bournemouth and Manchester City—a result that simultaneously confirmed Arsenal as Liverpool's successors as Premier League champions.
Bournemouth's draw leaves them on 56 points heading into their final fixture away at Nottingham Forest, sitting three points behind Liverpool's tally of 59. The Cherries remain the only club capable of overtaking the Reds, though they would need something of a miracle to pull it off.
Should Liverpool win or draw at home to Brentford on Sunday—a match that will serve as a farewell to Mohamed Salah and Andy Robertson—they will be guaranteed a place in the Champions League. Even a defeat is unlikely to prove catastrophic.
Premier League Table Ahead of Season Finale
Position | Team | Goal Difference | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
5. | Liverpool | +10 | 59 |
6. | Bournemouth | +4 | 56 |
Given their superior goal difference, Liverpool would need to lose to Brentford, Bournemouth would need to defeat Forest, and a seven-goal swing would have to take place for them to fall out of the top five. As an illustration, a 3–0 Liverpool defeat combined with a 4–0 Bournemouth victory over Forest would see the Cherries jump above Liverpool.
While that scenario is highly improbable, it cannot be entirely ruled out. Even less likely is the prospect of a playoff match for fifth place.
A 1–0 loss for Liverpool paired with a 5–0 Bournemouth victory on Sunday could trigger a remarkable single-leg playoff to determine fifth place. That's because the two clubs would be level on points, goal difference, goals scored, head-to-head record, and away goals in head-to-head fixtures throughout the season.
The likelihood of that scenario actually materializing is vanishingly small, however, and it remains highly probable that Liverpool will do just enough to hold off Bournemouth and lock in Champions League football for yet another season.