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Having already booked their place in the round of 32, the U.S. men's national team is daring to dream of lifting the World Cup trophy on home turf for the very first time.
Despite a disappointing run of pre-tournament results, the Stars and Stripes have hit the ground running on the global stage. They thrashed Paraguay 4–1 in their 2026 World Cup opener before recording a composed 2–0 victory over Australia to seal their spot in the knockout phase.
Australia and Paraguay further aided Mauricio Pochettino's side by beating Türkiye, enabling the USMNT to lock up top spot in Group D with one match still remaining. The host nation now faces Arda Güler's side in their group stage finale with nothing on the line.
Such an impressive showing from the U.S. has supporters and analysts buzzing about the possibility of a lengthy run this summer, fueled by passionate home crowds across the nation. But how does the Opta supercomputer assess the USMNT's chances of going all the way?
Supercomputer Predicts USMNT's World Cup Finish
Leading Group D with six points and the head-to-head edge over Paraguay and Australia, the USMNT has already guaranteed their passage to the round of 32. As group winners, the host nation will face the third-place finisher from Group B, E, F, I, or J; at present, those potential opponents include Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ecuador, Sweden, Senegal, and Jordan.
The supercomputer strongly backs the USMNT's chances of progressing past their first knockout stage opponent. Opta puts their probability of reaching the last 16 at 73.26%, which would mirror their result from each of their previous three World Cup campaigns.
The U.S. are eager to reach the quarterfinals for just the third time in their World Cup history. The supercomputer places their odds of doing so at 47.54% — a figure that would have seemed far-fetched before the tournament began.
Round | USMNT's Odds |
|---|---|
Round of 32 | 100% |
Round of 16 | 73.26% |
Quaterfinals | 47.54% |
Semifinals | 22.38% |
Final | 10.25% |
Winners | 4.69% |
The USMNT's odds drop sharply beyond the quarterfinals. Their probability of advancing to the semifinals stands at just 22.38%. While that figure may not inspire great confidence, only five other nations — France, Argentina, Spain, England, and Germany — are rated higher.
As for a final berth? Opta gives Pochettino's squad a 10.25% chance of appearing at MetLife Stadium on July 19. The USMNT has never played in a World Cup final, and reaching one this summer on home soil would be a historic milestone — though the supercomputer suggests it would ultimately end in disappointment.
The U.S. are given just a 4.69% chance of hoisting soccer's most coveted prize. France, Spain, Argentina, and England are the only nations with double-digit odds of being crowned world champions this summer, while the remaining 44 teams in the field are left with negligible percentages.
SI answers is our AI answer engine trained on human-created content.
The USMNT has already surpassed expectations considerably, and if Zlatan Ibrahimović is to be believed, Pochettino's men are capable of pulling off the unthinkable and winning the 2026 World Cup.